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Do Rapid Changes in Cloud Opacity and Structure Indicate an Emerging Climate Regime Shift?
Introduction Louis Armstrong famously crooned “I see skies of blue, and clouds of white…” But we know that clouds aren’t always white. We use the term “cloud opacity” to refer to the grayness (or brightness) of a cloud. A cloud looks white when light moves through it with little interference, and it looks darker when… Continue reading
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Upcoming paper: A New Framework for Convective Storms
Introduction Almost a decade ago, one of my students investigated the influence of terrain on thunderstorms crossing the Hudson River Valley. It was a unique approach to the problem of how terrain impacts storms, examining correlations between radar parameters and elevation. After his project was completed, I expanded the dataset and played around with it,… Continue reading
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How Autumnal Snow Cover in Siberia Really Relates to Cold Winters (Weather Explained #4)
Eurasian snow cover, tropical convection, and stratospheric dynamics form an interlinked system shaping midlatitude winters. This article examines recent research—including Cohen et al. (2021) and Gastineau et al. (2017)—to show when early snow growth strengthens the polar vortex connection and when it fails to. Continue reading
Arctic air, Arctic amplification, Arctic variability, downstream amplification, ENSO, Eurasian snow, Eurasian snow correlation, jet stream, Judah Cohen, La Niña, Madden–Julian Oscillation, MJO, planetary waves and polar vortex, polar vortex, polar vortex explained, Rossby waves, Science 2021, snow cover, snow cover and cold winters, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, stratospheric warming, weak La Niña forecast, winter forecast 2025 2026, winter temperature anomalies -
The Polar Vortex Explained: Why Winter 2025–2026 Could Bring Repeated Arctic Outbreaks (Weather Explained #3)
A surge of Arctic air next week marks the season’s first polar vortex episode. This post explains how the vortex forms and breaks down, why the eastern U.S. often feels its chill, and what current signals reveal about jet shifts, solar activity, and a dynamically active winter ahead. Continue reading
Arctic air outbreak, Arctic amplification, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric dynamics, climate variability, cold air outbreak, eastern U.S. cold, global circulation patterns, jet stream, jet stream shifts, Meteorological Cosmology, polar vortex, polar vortex explained, Rossby waves, Siberian snow cover, solar and magnetic influences, solar cycle 25, stratospheric warming, troposphere–stratosphere coupling, winter 2025–2026, winter weather science -
Liquid Is Where the Energy Is: The Energetic Core of the Water Cycle (Weather Explained #2)
This post explores the importance of liquid water in atmospheric processes. It emphasizes how phase changes of water balance energy, supporting weather patterns and climate. Liquid water uniquely absorbs and releases heat, aiding moisture exchange, forming clouds, and maintaining organizational structures in the atmosphere, thus driving the continuous renewal of weather systems. Continue reading
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When Aerosol Particles Tip the Balance: The Atmosphere’s New Feedback and Storm Initiation
Overview of SAMF: The Subcritical Aerosol-Moisture Feedback The Subcritical Aerosol-Moisture Feedback (SAMF) is a 📖 newly proposed framework that explains how aerosols and moisture interact when the planetary boundary layer (the lowest ~1 km of the atmosphere affected by Earth’s surface) exists in a subcritical state, before deep convection (intense, sustained vertical motion) begins. In… Continue reading
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Seminar Video: Discovery of the Subcritical Aerosol-Moisture Feedback (SAMF)
I recently presented a seminar about my experiences during the 8 April 2024 solar eclipse that explains how SAMF emerged from my data analysis of this event. The seminar is geared toward a general audience, but it presents a good overview for scientists. I’ve embedded the video below; you may want to use the full… Continue reading
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A Layman’s Guide to the Subcritical Aerosol-Moisture Feedback
Introduction In my recent study of the April 8, 2024 North American Solar Eclipse, I was fortunate to witness a rare event: a solar eclipse obscured by smoke. As a meteorologist, my natural curiosity revolved around how the smoke affected the weather. Eclipses produce a unique weather response, lowering the temperature as the moon covers… Continue reading
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10 Best Practices for Responsible, Effective ChatGPT Use in Academic Settings
Introduction: Maximizing ChatGPT for Academic Use and Responsible AI Practice I’m a meteorology professor who has spent the past several months calibrating and refining my use of ChatGPT. These interactions have involved applications such as writing code, clarifying concepts for my research, and mining journal articles for specific insights. Along the way, I’ve developed a… Continue reading
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Delicate Wisps in Equilibrium: How Lonely, Stray Cumulus Clouds Appear in Blue Sky (Weather Explained #1)
Stray cumulus clouds form when clean air, weak heating, and subtle feedbacks align just enough for condensation to appear. These delicate clouds are brief structures born from balance, where sunlight, moisture, and turbulence meet only momentarily before the sky returns to a brilliant blue. Continue reading